The Lions aim for the impossible feat of toppling Rouen three times on their home turf, in memory of their incredible 2004 campaign.
What if this final had been decided in the 1st inning of the first game? Savigny held firm despite a shaky opening inning: two errors, a single, but ultimately no runs scored. And then, during their turn at bat, the Lions filled the bases with one out. Their probability of winning the game climbed to 64%. Up to bat, Luc Viger, one of their top run producers, who was decisive in Game 4 of the 2021 final against Rouen, certainly driven by the legitimate desire to hurt his former team. Strikeout. Next up, Lilian Amoros, with 3 home runs this season, including two at Limeil-Brévannes. Grounded to second base. Savigny had let their chance slip away and wouldn’t get another. The Huskies took an inning to recover from that scare, then struck hard in the 3rd inning with 3 runs, 3 hits, and 2 walks. The game had turned decisively.
We say “almost” because in Game 2, the Lions roared again. With Rouen leading 2-0, Savigny found their comeback mode to tie the game on a single by Acuna, aided by two errors and a passed ball by the Huskies. 56% chance of winning the game, according to probability calculations. Up to bat, Léo Jiminian, undoubtedly the best hitter in France, followed by Axel Amoros with his 18 RBIs. Grounded to shortstop and strikeout. Rouen slammed the door shut with some brutality. And, as if awakened by the Lions’ sudden surge, the Huskies scored 5 unanswered runs in the next three innings. Savigny will have regrets about these missed opportunities. Regrets about their porous defense, with no fewer than 9 errors. Regrets about a lineup totally unproductive after the 3rd batter: from 4th to 9th, 2 for 39 (.051)! Regrets about not being able to use Orozco at his best in relief when the situation was tense. The gap was widened too quickly in Game 1 for the Nicaraguan to be brought in from the bench, and he couldn’t do much as a starter in Game 2. The failed signing of Romero as the #2 pitcher weighs heavily.
Too Strong for Rouen?
The Rouennais played their baseball. First, the top-4 (Defries – Masson – Smith – Blondel), who had systematically destroyed Toulouse’s pitching (.408, 7 extra-bases, 14 RBIs), did it again against Savigny (.444, 3 extra-bases, 6 RBIs). Then, the Huskies ran a lot, and not just to warm up on a chilly October weekend: 10 stolen bases. When a team runs fast and hits hard, it’s difficult to beat them, unless you capitalize on pitching. But alas, Rouen has the luxury of starting pitchers like Vincent and Prioul, only asking them for 5 or 6 innings, before bringing in Igami and Mercadier, keeping Moulin in reserve if needed. The American and the Japanese left only crumbs, it was a bit less dominant for the two Frenchmen, but they were never really overwhelmed.
So, is the writing on the wall? Are the Rouennais going to win an 18th title, in as many finals and 20 championships? It’s very tempting to say “yes”. Seeing Rouen lose three times at home would be an authentic earthquake in French baseball, a feat that will be talked about for years, with people saying “I was there”. Everything seems too strong on Rouen’s side for the wall to crack. The offense is on fire (26 hits last weekend), the defense has solidified throughout the season, and the pitching, as mentioned, is the most complete in the championship. And then there’s this certainty of winning that deeply inhabits the Rouennais, this mix of arrogance and ruthlessness that makes the Huskies believe they will win, no matter what, because it can’t be any other way. You have to feel this sensation, which exudes from the Rouennais dugouts, to understand how difficult it is to beat them in the championship final.
But Savigny won’t take the West Highway for a relaxing weekend in Normandy. The Lions can already call upon the spirits of 2004. Battered and dominated by the Barracudas, they turned the tables the following weekend under the sun of Veyraissi, for a comeback that remains in the memories. Twenty years later, the musketeers are not the same, but panache remains a strong value for the Lions.
A Lackluster Final
To win, Savigny will have to excel in every aspect. Not waste any opportunities, be flawless in defense, play all the right cards in pitching. The usual leaders, Acuna and Jiminian, will have to take charge of the team, but the younger players will also need to strongly support them. It’s as a team that Savigny can achieve this feat. Fortunately, it’s a concept that suits them perfectly. Slowly derail the well-oiled machine of the Huskies, sow seeds of doubt, tell themselves that there are 36 innings to win, and that, taken one by one, it’s quite possible. The Rouennais sometimes tend to forget how to play the 3rd game well (they only have 10 wins for 7 losses at this point in a final). Let the Lions take advantage of this.
We really want to say “Go Savigny” to have a final, an apotheosis, for the season to end with a true clash of the titans, to go at least to the 4th if not the 5th game, because that’s where history is written.
It’s necessary because the 2024 final is, for the moment, quite lackluster. A cumulative gap of 11 points over the first weekend is a lot. The average over the last 10 finals is 4.6 points. We reached 14 points in 2019, but 2024 comes in second place. .930 fielding percentage is the worst of the last ten finals, far behind the .950 of 2016. 63% of runs scored are unearned, the second worst percentage since 2017 (58%). And we could continue at this pace talking about the difference in hits or strikeouts between the two teams. All this to say that the level remains average, a bit like a season that leaves a bit to be desired. If D1 is the showcase of French baseball, which seems logical, it is a bit cracked.
Let’s hope that Lions and Huskies will offer us a fireworks display to forget all this. And that the title will be awarded on Sunday, after a beautiful battle. We will have switched to winter time. It will be the first time a French champion is crowned under these conditions. We can at least remember the final for that.
F. C.
