Sénart and Rouen confirm their resurgence, La Rochelle and Savigny searching for their second wind, Toulouse solidifying their grip at the top, Metz continuing their strong run… Sunday’s matchday added even more excitement to this thrilling championship.
Ink Bottle
Five teams with a .500 average… We can’t recall a championship this unpredictable since… well, perhaps ever. It’s amusing to note the symmetry of the teams’ performances. If we look at the wins and losses of each team in the first half and the second half of their season, we see a perfect balance, reflecting the rising or falling form of the teams: 5-2 then 2-5 for La Rochelle, 2-3 then 3-2 for Metz, 5-2 then 2-5 for Savigny, 1-5 then 5-1 for Sénart. It’s obviously more complicated for Montigny (0-5 then 1-4). Toulouse, meanwhile, has been remarkably consistent in their strong performances (5-2 then 5-2), and Rouen has managed to keep their heads above water (4-3 then 4-3). Toulouse also stands out by winning the most doubleheaders, three times, while Metz (5 out of 5) and Savigny (5 out of 7) are the teams that have most frequently split their doubleheader matchups. We suspected from the start of the season that this championship would be extremely tight, and now that we’re at the midway point (even if not all teams have played their 14 matches), we have confirmation. We’re also certain that every game will now weigh heavily, and that even a short winning or losing streak could make all the difference.
Tough Task Ahead
The big loser of the day didn’t even play. The Cougars of Montigny are seeing their rivals slip further away, and they’ll need a blistering end to the season to avoid the worst. To achieve a .500 average, which seems to be the championship norm, the Cougars would need to win 14 of their remaining 18 matches. That seems unlikely given their start to the season. But let’s imagine a team lets themselves fall behind and finishes, for example, with a 10-18 record. Even in that case, Montigny would need to win 10 of their next 18 games to stay afloat. We’re not saying it’s impossible, just that the Cougars are in a very unfavorable position.
Is It Already Done?
With a three-game lead over the .500 group, can Toulouse already feel they’re in the semifinals? It’s not guaranteed, but the Toulousains have made a decisive break, and we can even think that by securing a 7-7 record in the return matches, they would ensure a spot in the final four. Indeed, looking at the last five championships with eight teams, we see that an average of 15 wins was needed to finish fourth. This is a very good sign, statistically speaking, for Toulouse. What’s also interesting for Randy Perez’s men is that they are the only team—along with Metz—not to have faced Montigny yet (that will happen in the next round), while Savigny, La Rochelle, Montpellier, and Sénart have secured double victories against the bottom-dwelling team. All indicators seem to be pointing in the right direction for Stade.
New Runner-Up
The second place in the standings is like a hot seat. Savigny barely had time to settle in before being dethroned by their conquerors of the day, Rouen. Surprisingly, the Huskies find themselves in this position, given how poorly they seemed to be doing after their challenging France tournament. But the Rouennais have bounced back with three consecutive victories. Coach Becquey has shaken up his lineup, placing his three foreign hitters at the top of the order, which has worked relatively well against the Lions (6 for 20, 6 RBI for Defries, Masson, and Smith). The Huskies aren’t quite firing on all cylinders yet, but they’re showing some interesting sparks that could lead to a strong second half of the season. For years, we’ve known never to bet against the Huskies, even when they’re not at their best. Rouen may not look the same as in their glory days, but they remain a serious contender for the title.
Nothing to Say, Really?
The European development tournament organized by MLB in London, to which 15 French baseball prospects were invited, had a small impact on the championship day, with players arriving mid-morning and not participating in the first match, like Bouniol in Sénart or Navarro in Toulouse. But we don’t know much more about what actually happened, just as we wonder why Mendoza and Laot were absent in Toulouse, Prioul in Rouen, and Izquierdo in La Rochelle. Speaking of the Huskies, we noted the starting lineup of Mercadier, who has returned from Quebec, and discussing the Buccaneers, we noted the presence of a new hitter, Kian Johnston (a Canadian giant who dominated the Swedish league last season), and the return of the ace of recent years, Wilce Nieves. But on all these pieces of information, there is complete silence on the clubs’ websites or social networks. Clearly, communication in French baseball still has a long way to go: lack of resources, will, time, interest—whatever the reason, clubs really need to grow in this aspect and remember that if they want to attract the public—and the media—they would be well advised to explain what’s happening within their teams.
Silent Cannons
It’s a bit of a footnote, but the three best hitters in the championship (they occupy the top three spots in slugging, one-base hits, and OPS, and only Rodriguez and Navarro, absent on Sunday, stand between them for batting average) were very quiet on Sunday: 1 for 10 for Ruiz, 2 for 8 for Hvrytisvhili, 0 for 7 for Acuna. That’s a combined average of .120 for the three of them, when they were at .427 before the last round. When we tell you this championship is completely irrational!
The Podiums
Pitching
- Thibault Mercadier (Rouen). A winning return for Mercadier after his short stint with the Quebec Capitales. He shut down Savigny’s strong offense for 6 innings, allowing only two hits and two walks, and striking out 5.
- Émile Brelle (Sénart). His best outing of the season, 6 solid innings against La Rochelle, after a tough first inning, he managed to turn things around and only allowed three hits and one walk in total.
- Mathis Nayral (Sénart). Entering in the 7th inning with his team down by a run, he shut the door, despite a few nervous moments, and was very impressive in extra innings against the Buccaneers’ power hitters. In total, 5 strong innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts.
Batting
- Jack Partington (Metz). 4 for 7 with 2 triples and 3 RBI, he was the offensive leader for the Cometz.
- Felix Brown (Sénart). Once again, he showed his baseball savvy: in the first game, 3 for 5 with 3 RBI, and in the second game, 4 walks. Brown never ages!
- Jean-Christophe Masson (Rouen). A single hit was enough to put him on the podium, but it was decisive—a three-run double in the 4th inning of game 2 gave the Huskies some breathing room. The Quebec native also drove in a run in the 2nd inning.
