Rouen has pulled ahead at the top of the standings, while Montigny is fighting to stay alive, and everything remains up for grabs in the championship.
What now?
Absolutely nothing is decided, and it’s not useless to take a look at what awaits each team before the end of the season to get an idea of possible scenarios. Let’s compare the schedules of the 8 teams by calculating the average W/L percentage of their future opponents. In this regard, it’s Sénart who has the toughest schedule, as their 5 opponents have a .565 winning percentage, followed by La Rochelle .511, Montigny .500, Toulouse .489, Rouen .486, Savigny .457, Montpellier .456, Metz .444.
We can probably divide the championship into three tiers.
The tier fighting for the 1st place.
With their streak of 9 consecutive wins, the Huskies have staked their claim at the top of the standings and managed to pull ahead, with a two-game lead over Toulouse. These two teams have a relatively favorable schedule and should, barring a major collapse, qualify for the playoffs. The only question is the order in the standings, with the Rouen – Toulouse series on July 20-21 likely being decisive. If Rouen keeps winning, the writing will be on the wall. If Toulouse can turn the tables, anything is still possible.
The tier fighting for the playoffs.
Three teams for two spots: Savigny, Montpellier, and La Rochelle. The first two are – slightly – ahead of the Buccaneers and have a slightly easier schedule ahead. The Lions are solid but struggle to string together wins. The Barracudas are inconsistent, as evidenced by their last 8 games: 5 consecutive wins followed by 3 losses. The Buccaneers hit a rough patch after their stellar start to the season (2-9 in 11 games) and seem to be searching for a second wind. Slight edge to Savigny and Montpellier, but the Barracudas – Buccaneers game on September 1st could be decisive.
The tier fighting to avoid relegation
Montigny is hanging on. After a disastrous start to the season (1-9), the Cougars have regained some color in their last 6 games: 3-3. But ahead of them, teams keep winning and maintaining a slight lead. It’s possible that everything will be decided in the upcoming quadruple confrontation between Metz and Montigny, which represents almost a last chance for the 2023 runners-up, who are already three games behind the Messins. The latter have the best schedule until the end of the season and can climb into the top tier if they string together wins. But they haven’t won a doubleheader yet this season, and if they continue like this, it will be too complicated to reach the 4th spot. Sénart also has a 3-game lead, but they can’t afford to dawdle, with very tough games coming up against the top teams. So, nothing is lost for Montigny, but the slope is really, really steep.
New Beginnings
A few strategic changes have appeared in the use of starting pitchers this weekend. The most interesting one is on the side of Metz, where it seems they have finished with the Ten Eyck experiment (7 starts) as an opener. The other young Frenchman, Launay (4 starts), has also been relegated to the bullpen. Paredes (2 starts) and Paula (1st start on Sunday) are now getting the nod, while Quiroz (2 starts) has been given relief duties.
There’s also been a change, albeit likely circumstantial, in Montigny, with Mastre, who has struggled since the start of the season, making his 2nd start, while the main starter for this role, Lopez (7 starts), closed out the 9th inning. It would be surprising if Montigny does without Lopez as a starter in the future. It’s more complicated for the 2nd game, which was shared between Rault (4 starts), Grisot-Garbacz (2), and Monbeig (2).
In Rouen, they seem to be turning to a duo of Prioul (7 starts) – Vincent (3 starts) since the left-hander’s return from injury. Igami, who has been a starter 7 times since the beginning of the season, is now in relief, along with Mercadier (3 starts).
In Savigny, there’s stability with Coste, who has started the most games (10), and L.Amoros, who has been used 7 times. The Romero experiment (2 starts) was short-lived, and Orozco (1 start) is more useful in relief.
Stability is also found in Sénart, with a duo of Kurima (7 starts) – Nayral (4 starts), while Brelle (5 starts) has been moved to relief.
In Montpellier, the injury to Couvreur (3 starts) has necessarily reshuffled the deck and forced some experimentation with Brossier, Deleau, Gosselin, and Polit, all credited with a start. The return to form of Antonac (3 starts) and the reliability of Canelon (7 starts) now make them the two main choices for Ozanich, pending the return of the young prodigy.
It’s a bit more complicated in Toulouse, with the injury to Rojas (6 starts) leading to the debuts of Duquenoy (1) and Garcia-Martinez (2). Laot (7) has been the most used, and Esposito (2) seems to have found his place in the rotation.
Finally, in La Rochelle, behind the unshakable Esteban (8 starts), there have been some hesitations: Izquidero has 4 starts but seems to have lost the confidence of his coaching staff, Escorcha (3) is very useful in relief, while the last performance of De La Rosa (2) could earn him more starts. Perrois has also made a start.
Inefficiency
It was the match of the day, and while it didn’t disappoint in terms of intensity and suspense, the Montpellier – Rouen game also perfectly showcased the weaknesses of the French Championship. This was particularly evident in game 1, and the Huskies’ hard-fought victory. Sure, there was suspense, and remarkable performances like that of Rouen’s pitcher Thibault Mercadier, who entered in the 8th inning with the bases loaded, no outs, and a one-run lead for his team and was superb. But beyond this moment of bravery, the offenses didn’t really do their job. 0 for 23 for both teams with runners in scoring position, and 0 for 6 with the bases loaded. Points weren’t scored on hits. For Montpellier, it was thanks to 2 wild pitches and an error, for Rouen thanks to a walk with the bases loaded, 2 passed balls, and an error. This of course leads to the defenses, once again shaky, with 6 errors combined by both teams. And 2 errors were made by each team in innings where points were scored. Finally, the pitchers often missed the target, with a total of 15 walks (okay, 20 strikeouts too), which is the 2nd highest of the season after the 16 BB of Toulouse – Sénart on April 14 and the… Rouen – Montpellier on April 27. This gave a real spectacle, but leaves a bit to be desired in terms of actual quality of play.
Veyrassi, a barren plain.
From 2017 to 2023, the Barracudas had a record of 58-12 in the regular season in their Veyrassi den. They had only lost a doubleheader once (April 30, 2017, against Sénart) during this period. It’s not going as well this season, 4-6 at the Greg Hamilton Park and already two 0-2 losses, against Toulouse and Rouen. They need to tighten things up at home.
Just asking, but without wanting to disturb, especially.
The La Rochelle – Savigny game on April 30, won 11-3 by the Lions, was listed as a forfeit for La Rochelle on the excellent statistics site of the Federation. This doesn’t change much in the championship, as the victory was already secured for the Lions, but a forfeit (the second of the season for the Buccaneers after the Challenge) can be important in case of a tie. But baseball fans, who follow the championship, who are interested in what’s happening, would like to know the exact reason. A small explanation on the FFBS website, or on the page of the sports or disciplinary commission, or in the « official documents » section of the site ffsc.wbsc.org, it wouldn’t cost much and would be very appreciated by many supporters.
The Podiums
Pitching
1. Robinson Mastre (Montigny). We were worried when he gave a walk to the first batter of the game. But then, it was a masterclass, with 18 batters retired in a row, before an error put a bit of pressure on him in the 7th inning, which he managed to get out of by inducing a double play. His best outing in a long time.
2. Joshua Vincent (Rouen). It’s never easy to silence the Barracudas’ offense, but he did it for 6.1 innings, giving up only 3 hits, 3 walks, and striking out 8.
3. Thibault Mercadier (Rouen). What a relief performance! 8th inning, one-run lead, bases loaded, no outs, all statistics suggested that in this « high leverage situation, » the game was about to turn. Especially after throwing 2 balls to Antonac to start. But then, it was 9 straight strikes and 3 strikeouts to end the inning. Huge.
Batting
1. Pierre Doat (Sénart). A 5-RBI game, you don’t see that every day. Sure, his home run was hit in the 8th inning when the game was decided, but his 3 for 5 put Sénart back on track.
2. Hector Velazquez (Montigny). 4 for 8 in the day, but especially a big performance in game 1 with an important double hit after 2 outs, which put the Cougars on the path to victory.
3. Corentin Maimbourg (Metz). A big double at the start of game 1 against the Lions put the Cometz ahead, even if it wasn’t enough. But overall, he perfectly fulfilled his role at the end of the lineup with a solid 3 for 7 and RBI.
Crédits photographiques : Benjamin Witte, Club Cometz
