The Huskies have taken control of the championship, the southern duel was explosive, and the teams in the second half of the pack continue to fight. Everything you need to know about another thrilling matchday.
The Seven-Game Streak
Rouen are the sole leaders in the championship, with an impressive run of seven consecutive wins. During this streak, their two Americans, Defries and Smith, have set the tone. With their slash lines during this winning streak, .400/.471/.700 for the former and .389/.469/.692 for the latter, they have undeniably raised their game and given the Rouen offense some breathing room. Over the last seven games, Defries has an OPS of 1.171 and Smith 1.161, only the Messin Partington (1.235) has done better.
It wasn’t all perfect against Montigny, with defensive errors from the Cougars tipping the first match and the Rouen offense falling silent, or nearly so, after their eight-run first inning in the second game. But the facts are there: the Huskies are top of the standings, a position they were accustomed to for many years, though less so in the last two. We’re talking about seven games, but we could even say seven games and seven innings. Because if we go back to May 26th in Limeil, Rouen was at rock bottom after the first two innings against Savigny. The Lions led 4-0, and Rouen seemed on a downward spiral, just days after their disastrous France Challenge. Then the Huskies woke up. They scored four runs in the next seven innings, eventually losing 4-5, but everything seemed to suddenly fall back into place. Since then, the Huskies have scored 50 runs against 12, batting .285 while opponents have a mere .161 average. Their pitchers have a 1.17 ERA. They’ve hit doubles in every game (23 in total), and their batters have been hit by pitches in six of these seven games. It doesn’t mean much, but it’s fun to note. And their defense, which had committed 16 errors in their first eight games, has only made five in these seven games and seven innings. No surprise to see the Huskies leading practically all the collective statistical categories and, therefore, top of the standings. True, four of these seven wins came against bottom-of-the-table teams. But Rouen might not have won some of these games at the start of the season. In any case, the Huskies’ upcoming schedule includes an away trip to Montpellier, followed by hosting Toulouse. After these clashes, we’ll really know what the Pack has in its belly.
It Feels Like the South
What a Sunday at Argoulets! The southern duel lived up to all its promises, with knife-edge suspense in both games, and a split that could just as easily have turned into a double victory for either team. In the first game, it seemed the Barracudas had killed the suspense by leading 3-0 after two innings. But Toulouse loves a scrap. They loaded the bases with two outs against Canelon in the fourth inning but only scored once on a grounder by Navarro. They filled the bags against Bello in the sixth inning without crossing the plate. Similarly, Montpellier had the bases loaded with no outs in the sixth inning without scoring. Again, the bases were loaded against Ozanich in the seventh inning, and still no run. And then that final push in the last inning, the bases loaded again with no outs. After a strikeout of Baisse-Depontieu, Cegielski hit a sacrifice fly to bring the score to 2-3, but on the play, Baptiste Blancot was caught in a rundown between first and second. Four pitches later, he was out… What an ending!
It was the same in the next one. Like two heavyweights, Toulouse and Montpellier traded blows in the first two innings. Two runs for Randy Perez’s men, immediate retaliation with two runs from the Barracudas. The storm calmed after that, with pitchers Antonac and Esposito taking control of the game. And then everything changed in the seventh inning with a point scored by Toulouse, followed by Mendoza’s resounding three-run homer in the next inning after an intentional walk to Soriano. It could have ended there, but the Barracudas weren’t about to give in. Their first two batters, Zan and Kovacs, reached second and third. Then they crossed the plate on Antonac’s grounder and Monks’ single. After two outs, the tying run was at the plate, but a grounder ended the game.
We want more of these high-level duels, maybe in the semifinals! There could be some clouds on the horizon for Toulouse, however. According to sources close to the case, a disciplinary commission will look into the four Toulouse players expelled at the end of last week’s game against Montigny and the walk granted to Grisot-Garbacz that ended the match. And sanctions could follow. That could hurt Toulouse.
Outlook
Of course, it’s impossible to know who will qualify for the semifinals and who will be relegated. The championship remains very tight, and this 2024 season continues to be thrilling. However, we can start to distinguish some trends. For the playoffs, Rouen is well positioned. With a record of 12-6, if the Huskies finish the season with 6 wins and 4 losses, totaling 10 losses, which seems within their reach, they should secure their playoff spot, as La Rochelle already has 10 losses, Metz 8, and Sénart 9. It would take near-perfect performances from these three teams to overtake Rouen. It would also be surprising if Montpellier and Toulouse were not in the final four. The two teams have less margin for error (a bit more for the Barracudas, who have two games in hand against Montigny to play), but the gap is starting to widen with fifth place. Savigny, who struggles to string together winning streaks, must take advantage of their relatively favorable schedule in the next three matchdays, with games against Montigny, Metz, and Sénart, to make a break. We can give Rouen an 80% chance, Montpellier 70%, Toulouse 65%, and Savigny 55% chance of playing in the semifinals.
La Rochelle did well this weekend despite the absence of the Esteban brothers and remain in the hunt. The Buccaneers will have a tough time at the end of the season with games against Toulouse, Rouen, Montpellier, among others. The Buccaneers are not in a favorable position, but they have shown at the start of the season that they can hurt anyone. They still have a card to play, but little room for error. It’s hard to see clearly for Metz, who have many games left to play (still 14) and could therefore possibly make a comeback in the standings. Sénart is a bit up and down, and is paying dearly for its four losses in its first four games. The next four games against Montigny and Metz will set the tone for their end of season, but like the Buccaneers, the Templiers can’t afford to dawdle. As for the Cougars, they are five games away from a playoff spot, meaning they would probably have to win 12 of their remaining 14 games to hope to catch up with the Lions. It’s more about avoiding a sad descent into D2 that the French champions will have to fight for. And with already three games in hand on Sénart and Metz, it’s a very complicated task that awaits them. Let’s say that Templiers and Cometz finish the season with an average of .429, which corresponds roughly to their current performances, they will have 12 wins and 16 losses. This would require Montigny to win 9 of their 14 games to reach their level. A difficult task for a team that has so far only won 3 of 14. But anything is possible, and that’s the beauty of baseball.
No Mercy
Since the 10-0 inflicted by Metz on Toulouse, there has been no mercy rule. That’s 29 consecutive games without a 10-run lead. While in the first 33 games of the season, there were 10. No doubt, the gap is narrowing between the teams. That said, this 8th round was rather prolific, with an average margin of 7.17 points, the second highest after the 3rd round (8.50 points). It had been only 3.83 in the previous round. Similarly, an average of 11.67 points were scored per game, also the second highest of the season behind the 3rd round (14.50). The lowest total was in the 6th round with 8.83. Finally, there were 19.83 hits, against 20.25 in the 3rd round and 21.50 in the 7th round.
The Podiums
Pitching
- Franklin De La Rosa (La Rochelle). This is undoubtedly his best season to date, and he confirmed it by dominating the formidable attack of the Lions, pitching 8 innings, allowing only 3 hits, 1 earned run, 0BB, and 5K.
- Alexis Paredes (Metz). A very impressive outing of 8 innings against Sénart with no less than 9K, despite 8 hits allowed and 2 earned runs.
- Kenny Esposito (Toulouse). He had a bit of trouble finding his rhythm, but he was excellent in the day’s showdown against Montpellier with 7 innings and just 1 earned run.
Batting
- Jalen Smith (Rouen). A big day for the Huskies’ third baseman: 4 hits in 7 at-bats, 2 doubles, 1 home run, 4 RBIs, and 3 walks to boot. A true cleanup hitter!
- Ryoma Ogawa (Sénart). He tormented the Cometz pitching: 3 hits in the first game, 3 hits in the second, a hitting machine!
- Thomas Demory (Savigny). There were batters who were more consistent than him in the day, but a first career home run, that’s worth celebrating! Especially as it was hit in the third inning of game 2, when the Lions were only leading 1-0, and therefore played a certain role in the victory.
Photo credits: Hiep images, Pierre Davesne, Clubs
