Even with one match postponed due to unplayable field conditions, the latest round of the championship was thrilling to follow. Here are the key takeaways.
The Enigma of the Leader
A first break has occurred in the championship. With a double victory over Montpellier, Toulouse has established itself as a solid leader, leaving Boucaniers and Lions two wins behind. Kudos to the home team, but their performance has left statisticians scratching their heads. For Toulouse doesn’t dominate in any statistical category, or almost none. Offensive average? 4th place; power? 4th place; on-base percentage? 2nd place; strikeout percentage? 5th place, walk percentage? 2nd place. And when they are first, it’s for double plays conceded. On the pitching side, the same scenario: 5th earned run average, 5th offensive average against; 5th in strikeouts per 9 innings; 7th in walks per 9 innings. And for the defense, 3rd best average.
However, the Toulousains have turned the most double plays, and by a wide margin (31 against 24 for second-place Montpellier), they are the only ones not to have conceded any home runs, and they lead the stolen base column (32 against 28 for Savigny). It’s therefore difficult to find a statistical explanation for the dominance of the Toulousains, other than their ability to make their opponents look bad: remember the 6 errors by Rouen in game 2, and the Barracudas made 8 this Sunday. And all this without their ace, Keivy Rojas, who is injured. What emerges from this start to the Toulouse season is a real sense of serenity. Randy Perez hardly ever touches his lineup, especially the first six batters, which gives the players confidence. The Toulousains have won 5 games by one run, which means they know how to manage both highs and lows, and Jhon Garcia plays a decisive role at the end of the game with his 4 saves. This serenity can be found in their reaction after the drubbing by the Huskies (19-4). No panic, no frustration, Toulouse got back to work the next day and won the next match. Overall, Toulouse is a very strong leader, playing probably at the peak of their abilities, without any major strengths, but also no decisive weaknesses. That’s all you need to go far.
No Streak Magic
In such a tight championship, managing to string together consecutive wins is no easy feat. The Boucaniers had achieved this with a cannonball start to the season, 5 consecutive wins, but since then, it’s been much harder (1-4). Savigny managed to win three straight games, but then lost the next two. For most other teams, it’s often an alternation of wins and losses, for example Rouen: W-W-L-L-W-L-W-L-L-W, or Montpellier L-W-W-L-L-W-L-W-L-L. So we’re back to Toulouse, who are currently on a 5-game winning streak. We’ll see during their trip to Metz on May 26th whether they can reach 6. On the losses side, Sénart started the season with 4 consecutive defeats before bouncing back (3-1 in the following matches) and Montigny put an end to their dismal 0-6 run by beating Rouen.
What’s Become of Them?
Should we start to seriously worry about the two finalists of the 2023 championship? It’s tough for Montigny, with a weak offense and pitching that doesn’t hold up (6.23 ERA against 3.78 last year), apart from Y. Lopez, of course. The late surge in the first match against the Huskies avoided the worst, but if Dylan Mayeux’s men don’t raise their level of play, they risk facing many scares before the end of the season. Montpellier is obviously suffering from the exodus during the offseason and the injury to Ben Couvreur. Canelon can’t do it all alone, Gosselin doesn’t have the same output as last season, the attack doesn’t produce much outside of a few hitters. The Barracudas are still in the race for the playoffs, but their overall level seems well below that of last year.
Statistical Look at the JFL
With the small break of the Challenge de France, it’s interesting to take a look at the stats of the JFL / Non-JFL pitchers. No surprise, obviously, the non-JFL dominate in most statistical categories, and after all, they are paid for it.
But we can see that the JFL are doing well in some areas. They already have a better win/loss ratio, more quality starts and have conceded fewer balks. In the latter case, bad spirits could say that it’s a question of adaptation to made-in-France umpiring. But above all, the JFL have started more games and pitched more innings, which was exactly the goal sought.
With time, and the experience gained, we will certainly see the statistical gaps narrow between the two groups. We will follow these developments with interest over the coming months.
Lexicon:
W: Wins; L: Losses; ERA: Earned Run Average; GS: Games Started; IP: Innings Pitched; BAA: Batting Average Against; WP: Wild Pitches; HB: Hit Batsmen; BK: Balks; QS: Quality Starts (at least 6 innings and fewer than 3 runs allowed); SLGOpp: Opponents’ Slugging Percentage (it’s very good for non-JFL, above average for JFL); OBPopp: Opponents’ On-Base Percentage (it’s excellent for non-JFL, average for JFL); OPSopp: Opponents’ On-Base Plus Slugging (it’s average for non-JFL, poor for JFL); WHIP: Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (it’s average for non-JFL, very poor for JFL); K/9: Strikeouts per 9 innings (it’s above average for non-JFL and weak for JFL); BB/9: Walks per 9 innings (it’s mediocre for non-JFL, very poor for JFL), FIP: An advanced stat that estimates the pitcher’s performance without considering the defense (it’s very good for non-JFL, very poor for JFL); LOB%: Determines the effectiveness of pitchers with runners on base (it’s below average for non-JFL, very poor for JFL); %K: The percentage of strikes relative to the total number of pitches.
Expected Returns
With the end of the college seasons in the USA, the picture of several teams will change. Here are the players who could come and reinforce their team in the coming days/weeks:
- Metz: J. Paula (.297, 8 HR, 44 RBI in NAIA)
- Montpellier: J. Monks (.185, 2 HR, 9 RBI in NCAA D2), M. Zan (.283, 3 HR, 26 RBI in NAIA).
- Sénart: V. Blanc-Jouvain (6-4, 5.02 ERA in NJCAA D1), M. Nayral (4-3, 5.20 ERA in NJCAA D1), T. Meurant (0-1, 9.00 ERA in NJCAA D1), P. Doat (.206, 1 HR, 6 RBI in NJCAA D1), M. Meurant (.374, 5 HR, 49 RBI in NJCAA D1).
- Toulouse: K. Esposito (11-2, 4 sv, 3.22 ERA in CCCAA).
All this without mentioning the « Japanese » Q. Moulin, N. Antoine and M. Lopez, who will probably not be available before September, T. Mercadier who has just signed with the Capitales de Québec and of course M. Lacombe who is continuing his apprenticeship with the White Sox affiliates.
The Podiums
Batting
- Liam Navarro (Toulouse). He is a pillar of the Toulouse offense, a formidable fifth batter, who did serious damage to the Barracudas with a 6-for-8 performance and 5 RBI, decisive in the 3rd inning of game 1 with a two-run single or even in the 1st inning of game 2 with a two-run single.
- Douglas Rodriguez (Montpellier). Match after match, he confirms that he remains one of the best hitters in the championship, as evidenced by his 5-for-10 with 3 RBI, albeit insufficient to avoid a double defeat for the Barracudas.
- Francis Lassaline (Montigny). A ray of sunshine in the somewhat gloomy sky of the Cougars: his walk-off double in the 9th inning that scores the winning run. In total, a beautiful day at the plate with 4-for-8.
Pitching
- C. Esteban (La Rochelle). Decidedly always very solid, he managed to keep the powerful Lions offense in check: 6.1 IP, only 1 earned run, 2 small hits and 6 strikeouts. Artist’s work.
- Jhon Garcia (Toulouse). Two saves in the same day, you need to have a strong arm and nerves of steel! He gave himself a few scares in the second game, with two singles and a walk, but managed to finish the job.
- Yorfrank Lopez (Montigny). He has dominated the Huskies lineup for several outings, and confirmed this with 7 very good innings, 1 earned run, 6K and 2 hits.
François Colombier
Photo Credits: F. Volpato, Clubs
