Pulling off two wins against a direct rival in such a tightly contested championship, while others split victories, is obviously the standout performance of the matchday. And that’s exactly what the Lions achieved, after a tough battle with the Templiers. While the first game was relatively easy to control behind a dominant Pena, the second turned into a boxing match with both teams trading blows. The two sides kept running neck-and-neck, with no fewer than 6 intentional walks handed out, and it couldn’t have ended any other way than in extra innings, after two outs, with a walk-off hit from Noa Martinez-Bouvier, who has been very satisfying throughout the season and is one of the many young French baseball prospects showing great promise this year. Sénart, like the others, didn’t stay at the top for long, and Savigny reclaimed its throne, still with a fiery offense led by an ever-impressive Acuna, and a defense that’s starting to tighten up. These Lions are starting to look like a force to be reckoned with.
This matchday also saw a small but significant event: the PUC’s first victory. The Parisian side deservedly held their ground after a 4-run push from Béziers in the 3rd inning of game 2. The gamble of starting Olivier Morris had held up for two innings, but not the third. However, the PUC’s offense finally broke through with a 6-run rally in the 4th inning, and German took care of the rest. Reyes’ arrival has done the PUC good, both in defense and offense, while Gonzales continues to produce with great consistency. But the road ahead remains long.
There was another notable event this weekend. Since their return to D1/Élite in 2002, the Huskies had never suffered the indignity of a mercy-rule defeat in 622 regular-season games. That streak is now over. After winning the first game thanks to defensive errors (and a stellar performance from the Taido-Ito duo on the mound), the Huskies crumbled against the Barracudas’ powerful offense, committing 4 errors in the process. Things just aren’t clicking for Rouen right now.
Finally, Toulouse once again demonstrated their mental strength by snatching victory from the jaws of defeat against La Rochelle in game 1, after the Boucaniers seemed to have the match wrapped up with a 6-2 lead in the 6th inning. The Stade secured their 3rd extra-inning win, showcasing their ability to manage the end of games perfectly. It’s no coincidence that Toulouse has scored the most runs in the 9th inning this season. This success was largely down to Kylian Bamberger, who celebrated his debut for the Argoulets in style: 4 for 5, including a 3-run home run. Welcome to the club, Kylian. It took a strong team to resist La Rochelle, led by a formidable duo at the top of their lineup: M. Esteban (5 for 11) and Briones (an astonishing 9 for 12).
We’re now at the midway point of the championship, a good time to look ahead to the rest of the season. Looking at the last 10 championships with 8 teams, the 4th place has been decided with 15, 16, 14, 18, 17, 13, 12, 15, 14, and 14 wins. In other words, with 15 wins, a playoff spot is practically guaranteed. And this season, even 14 wins might be enough, given how close the teams are and how often they split victories. The Lions already have 11 wins (in 16 games). Barring an unlikely collapse, they can already be considered members of the final top 4. Especially if they continue to dominate so convincingly at home (7-1). Second in the standings with 9 wins, La Rochelle also looks a very credible playoff candidate, especially as the Boucaniers have managed to address one of their recurring weaknesses: away games. They’re the only team with a positive record on the road (5-3), and they still have 8 home games to play. That should be enough to secure the 5 or 6 wins they need. Let’s say 90% chance of qualification for Savigny, 70% for La Rochelle, who will complete the lineup? Despite their ups and downs, Montpellier has such a dangerous offense (will Brossier ever slow down?) and can take comfort from the arrival of Couvreur to relieve the bullpen, that it’s hard to see the Barracudas missing out. We’ll give them a 60% chance.
Three teams remain in the running for the last playoff spot. Sénart is strong, with a powerful lineup and quality pitching. The Templiers’ main weakness is their away record: they’re 1-5 on the road (against 7-1 at home), and they’re going to play more away games than home ones, with their defense causing some concern (20 errors in their last 6 games). But the Templiers have found their level this season, they’re still to host Rouen and Toulouse, which isn’t negligible, and they currently have a short lead in the playoff race (55%). We might have thought that their superb Challenge run would have given the Huskies a boost. Result: they’re 3-3 since, have given up more hits than they’ve managed (41 vs 57), and even the team’s great strength, their defense, is showing signs of weakness. The Huskies aren’t comfortable on the road, with a 3-5 record (Rouen have only had a negative away record once, in 2023, and they didn’t qualify). Will the European Cup represent a boost, or conversely, in the event of a poor run, psychologically drain the Rouennais? The champions’ season is being played out. Of course, Rouen, at their best, are capable of securing the 54 or 6 wins they need in their next 12 games. But in that sentence, the notion of ‘at their best’ still remains to be proven. We’ll give the Rouennais a 45% chance.
Despite all their fighting spirit, it’s going to be tough for Toulouse, who will play 10 away games against just 4 at home. Given the Stade’s difficulties on the road (1-3 so far) and an offense that’s struggling to take off (the lowest batting average), the path ahead looks very steep. Even with a perfect home record, they’ll need to secure 4 or 5 wins on the road, and that’s no easy task. 35% chance. On the other hand, Béziers have had their share of struggles and will play 10 of their next 14 games at home, where the Pirates are 3-1 this season. From there to making an exceptional comeback and overturning the table by doubling the three teams above them, that still seems unlikely. 10% chance. For the PUC, the writing’s on the wall. Unless this hard-fought victory gives them wings. The PUC won’t be playing in the playoffs, that’s certain, but can they reclaim 4 games from Béziers? That’s not a given. But nothing’s written until the final whistle.
F Colombier
Photo credits: RS Club
