Demi-finales : On dirait le Sud !

There are two ways to look at the first weekend of the French championship semifinals. The first is to think it’s all over, that we’re heading straight for a sizzling, even scorching, Occitan derby, and that this weekend’s clashes will be mere formalities for victors who have the wind in their sails and will only accelerate as they approach the finish line.

The other is to see that the matches were decided by just 1 or 2 points, that there was no overwhelming dominance, and that the few details that made the difference could easily swing the other way. After all, La Rochelle led 3-0 and Rouen 5-0 in the first games, so anything is possible.

To be honest, we wouldn’t bet our house or car on a dramatic turnaround in both matches. A trend this strong doesn’t just change, and logic should prevail. But then again, baseball and logic…

Maritime Lands

Your favorite commentators from Baseball TV France didn’t seem to believe it either. They signed off, saying they’d see us next season, with only a hint that they might return to the final. True, imagining winning three games in Veyrassi, where the Montpellier side hasn’t lost a single game this season, and with the Buccaneers not always comfortable away from home, seems like a mission impossible.

In fact, teams leading a best-of-five series 2-0 since the turn of the century have won 31 out of 33 times. But in this impressive statistic, there’s a small detail that could give La Rochelle hope. The team that lost twice with such a lead is Montpellier. In 2004, after winning the first two games of the final in Savigny, and in 2011, after winning twice at home against Rouen. So, never say never? But proverbs, as they say, are rarely close to reality.

To achieve this, La Rochelle must remember the first four innings of the first game. Everything went perfectly: an aggressive offense with a Crawford as consistent as ever this season, a Pena as productive as ever, and a De La Rosa who didn’t give up a hit. There was no reason for it to stop. But everything changed with Kovacs’ home run. Three more hits followed, Montpellier took the lead, and the complexion of the game changed. If there was an image of the highly psychological aspect of a playoff game, this match would be the perfect illustration. The next 12 La Rochelle batters didn’t get a hit, and when they did (Tovar’s double in the 8th inning), the damage was done. Montpellier had increased their lead, taking advantage of another disastrous outing by Canelon.

100% or More

We talked about details, about not making physical or mental errors, and the 2nd inning of game 2 confirmed that you should never give anything to the opponent. After Montpellier had taken a 2-0 lead, La Rochelle showed real moral fiber by scoring once on a Molero single, then tying the game on a Crawford single (who else?). Or so we thought. Because a poor run by Laufenbuchler and a quick reaction from Montpellier’s defense resulted in a third-out at third base, before M. Esteban crossed the plate. Instead of being tied at 2-2 with runners on first and second, Briones, Pena, and Johnston coming up to bat, La Rochelle returned to their dugout trailing. That might be where the game was decided. Even if La Rochelle had a few opportunities late in the game, a double play grounder by Tovar hurt them in the 6th inning. Even when Montpellier opened the door with two errors to start the 7th inning, the decisive hit didn’t come. These few examples prove that La Rochelle could have done something.

Against a Montpellier side like that, however, you have to be at 100%, even a bit more, to hope to triumph. This team shows extreme solidity, which allows them to overcome the ups and downs of matches, with perfect management of both weak and strong moments (not giving in, and hitting hard). Once again, the Brossier-Flores duo set the tone, but the danger can come from anywhere, and with a bottom of the lineup featuring Rodriguez, Kovacs (or Doat), and Bouniol, who combined for 8 hits over the weekend, it’s clear that Montpellier is armed to go far. The pitching is just as strong. Vera is perhaps a little less impressive than at the start of the season, but he remains very solid. And in relief, Ozanich and Quinones are dominant. This Montpellier team has no real weaknesses and exudes the confidence (which sometimes borders on arrogance) of those who know they are built to win.

So what are the solutions for the Buccaneers? Just do a little better… Keep being aggressive at the plate: 9 hits in each game is no small feat against a team that has only given up 7.8 on average during the regular season. They’ll need to find a way to squeeze out two or three more, especially with runners in scoring position (only 3 in 15). They might need to run a little more (two stolen bases), in short, find every way to put pressure on Montpellier’s defense, which, as we’ve already seen, can sometimes stumble. That’s what it will take to achieve what would undoubtedly be the greatest feat in French baseball history.

Multiple Resources

Rouen has pulled off some feats in the last 22 years. Is the 2025 version of the Huskies capable of following in their footsteps? Not easy, not obvious. Because Toulouse has been very solid. Where we expected them to be: home runs from Soriano and Mendoza, hits from Baisse-Depontieu, speed (7 stolen bases), a Rojas who slams the door, a robust defense (only 1 error, remarkable), basics well executed (including Perez’s perfect sacrifice in the 8th inning, bringing the winning run), a Garcia-Martinez who comes in relief twice in complex situations but does the job. That’s all the Stade has shown during the season, and when the best players are present, it’s often a good sign.

But Toulouse also has other resources: it’s Blancot (.200 average and .143 with runners in scoring position) who went for the decisive hit of the second game, it’s Laot (7.63 ERA this season, 6 runs allowed in 8 innings against Rouen), who dominated the Huskies’ offense for 6 innings. It’s Delogu, a rather aggressive hitter, who drew 4 walks in game 1, he who had only received 5 all season. This discipline, this management of at-bats, shows that Toulouse was perfectly prepared. It’s really a whole team that has come together, who knew how to turn the tables in game 1, after conceding 5 runs in the 3rd inning, and knew how to make the difference when it mattered in game 2.

Ah! That third inning of the first game… 9 runs scored, 19 batters, 9 hits, 2 walks, 1 hit by pitch, 2 errors including one that may have tipped the series, that of Prioul on Baisse-Depontieu’s grounder, opening the way for the Stade’s big hitters, who knew how to capitalize. Rouen had the game in hand. 5-0, with a top of the lineup that reached base and Dagneau and Brainville who took advantage. Not many Huskies supporters who weren’t already looking at flight schedules to Montpellier for the weekend of September 13-14 at that moment. But Toulouse didn’t give up, and it’s like a symbol, their two young recruits, Feliu and Perez (1 hit in their last 22 at-bats), who came to hit, reach base, and put pressure on a surprisingly tense Rouen defense.

The Huskies have indeed shown all the ills of the season in this match: obvious nervousness at the plate, lack of lucidity in important runs, general jitters when it comes to holding a score and repelling the opponent’s assaults. The talent is there, but no one plays well at the same time. The Huskies resemble a discordant orchestra, in which the soloists execute their parts without paying attention to the interpretation of the others.

Toulouse, on the other hand, played as a team, with the right amount of enthusiasm and desire to force the decision when needed while keeping their cool. There’s not much to take away from the collective performance: every Stade batter had at least one hit, the pitchers were used as needed, the plays were executed. If Toulouse is in the same vein this weekend, the task seems difficult to overcome for the Huskies. They will have to raise their level of play not by one, but by three or four notches to make the Stade doubt.

There’s still the home factor. Rouen at home is a different team: 13 wins this season, a defense that hardly makes errors, an offense and pitching that work better. And then there’s history. Toulouse hasn’t won at Pierre-Rolland since 2013. That’s 21 straight losses. The Norman air doesn’t suit the southerners. But series, as they say, are made to be broken.