Running large-scale operations. That’s the main prerogative of a strategist.
2002. Billy Beane becomes the general manager of the Oakland Athletics. With relatively little money, he will rely on secondary but revealing and interchangeable statistics. Among them, the famous « On Base Percentage ». They will allow him to buy undervalued players. Defeated on the threshold of triumph, the Athletics will inspire others. Even allowing the Boston Red Sox to enrich their tactics and win one of their 9 titles in 2004.
Let’s change planets. Considering it’s possible to apply a military title straight out of ancient Greece to a general manager of an American pro baseball franchise in the 21st century, why not transfer it to a French D1 team? Certainly, the approach isn’t devoid of empiricism. Adventure is adventure! However, if we look at the cascade of numbers already generated by the 46 matches played, we can certainly draw some assumptions, leads, deductions. OBP is the statistic that reveals a player’s (all means combined) and by extension a team’s ability to reach first base. It’s an absolutely global « stat » that even considers third-strike releases, HBP, sacrifices in its calculations…
D1. The teams in contention:
The provisional standings of the championship remain quite « classic » in that they respect, with a few events, the historical depth known. Standings by win percentage.
1 – Montpellier Barracudas OBP .378: the team is undefeated so far in 8 games, the Barracudas impress. No one has resisted them. Important note: they have only played against the outsiders. Nice, Clermont, La Rochelle and Metz. A first part of the championship where they roll, ideal in terms of preparation, confidence before facing bigger fish… This OBP translates into an incisive, confident attack in its ability to hit often. Not patient enough? Only 35 BB.
2 – Sénart Templiers OBP .468: narrowly surpassed by Brno for the title (which they did beat) in the CEB, Matthieu Brelle-Andrade’s players have also shown they are on their way to the playoffs. Important note: they have also only faced Nice, Clermont and Metz. OBP that demonstrates hitting qualities linked to patience. The Templiers know how to wait and hit. 59 BB.
3 – Savigny sur Orge OBP .445: the Lions advance steadily with only one hiccup against the defending champions, the Huskies, albeit weakened. Savigny’s merit is to have already faced Rouen, Montigny, Toulouse and Paris. It’s the second-best OBP behind Sénart. There’s still a way to go for Thomas Salado, who manages powerful and regular Lions. Without a doubt, one of the four finalist teams.
4 – Rouen Huskies OBP .368: the big surprise of the season. The lords of Normandy baseball are having great difficulty dominating their subjects. Crowned 15 times, they have reacted well against Savigny by taking a game. Same against Montigny and Toulouse. In a reduced lineup, recomposing a united team is an important task for Keino Perez. They have risen so high! Be careful if the floodgates open, allowing the arrival of certain « reinforcements » within the pack. Patience is also Norman. 48 BB.
5 – La Rochelle Boucaniers OBP .310: with the same win ratio as the Huskies, the baseballers of the west want to establish themselves as the most feared outsiders in 2021. However, with only 29 BB and not enough consistency at the plate, the Rochellais have notably struggled at home against the Barracudas, despite a tight first game. It’s up to the maritime team to generate as many wins as possible against the Templiers, Nice, Clermont and Metz and Montpellier again to assert their status.
6 – Stade Toulousain OBP .284: In 2004, the Tigers are affiliated with Stade Toulousain. In 1993, 6 years after its creation, the club from the pink city reaches the highest level. Mixed starts for 2021 with as many defeats as victories. A bit light, the Toulouse attack does not compensate for one of the least performing defenses on paper. But be careful, the southerners have had to battle against the PUC, Rouen, Savigny and Montigny… Overcome by the Lions, the tenants of the Argoulets presented a determined but not very patient opposition at the plate, only 24 BB. To be seen against the teams at the bottom of the table where the southerners should generate victories.
7 – Clermont-Ferrand Arvernes OBP .321: one of the best attacks of this first part of the championship. So why such a low win ratio? With a start close to catastrophic, the worst ERA for the Auvergnats, and sizeable opponents, Sénart, La Rochelle, Montpellier. They will finally take a game from the Cometz and two from the Cavigals. The big teams seem out of reach. They still have a path where they will have the opportunity to pick up points, especially against Metz, Nice and La Rochelle. But never underestimate the players of the Cézeaux.
8 – Montigny LB OBP .295: the team of the young prodigy M. Mayeux is having a difficult start. It must be said that the Ignymontains have had a lot to do against Rouen, Savigny, Paris and Toulouse. A rather average fielding percentage and an ERA in the middle of the table. 34 BB to the credit of the Cougars. Not punchy enough to worry the best, this young team, finalist in 2019, could well play unpleasant tricks on all the outsiders. Still to play Rouen, Savigny, Paris and Toulouse.
9 – Paris Université Club OBP .349: what a shame. The antithesis? The Parisian attack, average at the plate but which arrives on base, must deal with a porous defense and a pitching that gives too many runs. 39 BB for the capital so far. They will have to fight against a tough upcoming schedule: Toulouse, Rouen, Montigny, Savigny.
10 and 11 Cometz OBP: .306 and Metz and Nice Cavigals OBP .247: with each 2 wins and 8 losses, the provisional occupants of the bottom of the table remain combative. The Cometz snatch a « game » from Nice and Clermont, harassing the Barracudas hard before finally giving way. With their beautiful OBP, the players of Metz, when they lose, usually lose by a narrow margin, except against Sénart. For Nice, things are also complex. The Cavigals have yet snatched a game from the Rochellais. The Nice attack is too timid. With only 22 BB, a batting average of .180 and yet a correct ERA of 4.57. More decisive defeats.
As can be seen, OBP remains a revealing statistic. It can reveal patience, effectiveness, coupled with AVG, SLG, OPS… But like most of them, it can do nothing without a respectable defense.
This morning, the sixth matchday of the D1 championship begins.
Note the postponement of the La Rochelle-Metz match for health reasons.
Next appointment for baseballTV live at Boucan’s field during the seventh matchday on August 1st!
Greetings to all on all points of the diamond!
Vincent Picard.
