For its 20th edition, the Challenge de France, which kicks off on Thursday in Rouen and Chartres / Gellainville, is more open than ever. Here’s what you need to know to follow the competition.
1) The Challenge is for the regulars
Since the first edition, the big four has dominated the Challenge. The Barracudas, the Lions, the Huskies, and the Templiers have left their rivals with only crumbs. They’ve won 18 of the 19 editions, secured the final spots (only PUC in 2002 – but only two teams were entered in the Challenge – Toulouse in 2007 and Montigny last year managed to sneak in) and the semifinals, 53 times out of 68 (there were no semifinals in 2002 and 2003), or 78% of the time. There have been only a few surprises among the teams in the final four. La Guerche in 2009, which eliminated Montpellier at home in a pool match (4-2), Beaucaire in 2013, which also sent the Barracudas packing (2-1), Clermont in 2017, which took advantage of a slightly easier pool with PUC and Saint-Just. That’s all!
2) The Challenge is for teams in form
The Challenge favors teams that are in good, even great, early-season form. Like Sénart in 2008 (10-0) and Rouen in 2015 (12-0), who arrived undefeated and won all their matches in the Challenge. But you can also cite Rouen in 2007 (10-2) or 2016 (10-2), and more recently Sénart in 2019 (11-1), Montpellier in 2021 (16-2), or even Rouen in 2022 (8-2) to see this strong trend.
Rouen field
3) But times are changing…
Exceptions are made to change the rules! And statistical or historical principles don’t always stand up to change. The Cougars, in any case, broke many habits last year. First, they ended the reign of the Big Four, and that’s no small feat. Then, they arrived at the Challenge with a 5-5 record, far from the blazing starts mentioned earlier. No doubt, Montigny opened up new horizons. We’re on a streak of four different winners in four years (which only happened once before, between 2005 and 2008), so will all these new developments continue? There’s no clear dominant team, anyone can beat anyone, the 2024 Challenge is one of all uncertainties.
4) Especially since the rules are changing too!
You have to take a look at Annex 6 of the Competition Rules (page 17, specifically) to see that during the Challenge, the JFL rule disappears. Well, not quite, you still need 5 players on the field, but there are no restrictions on pitchers. It’s the least you can say, to say the least, to change a formula that seemed to make sense, for a competition qualifying for a European Cup. Already, the 7 innings were questionable, but this is very strange. Because you have to be naive, teams with several non-JFL pitchers won’t hold back, and put pitchers who have been used during the season back on the bench, when it was an opportunity to confront the JFL with high-stakes matches. Why not impose, for example, 7 JFL innings in the first phase and 7 innings in the final phase? In any case, this changes the game compared to the regular season. And we think it’s regrettable.
5) An imbalance in the pools?
At first glance, you might think that the Chartres pool (Metz, Montpellier, Savigny, Toulouse) looks a bit stronger than the Rouen pool (La Rochelle, Montigny, Rouen, Sénart), judging by the standings: 21 wins for the four teams in Chartres against 15 for those in Rouen.
But digging a bit into the stats, you see that the level is, after all, roughly the same. Advantage to the « Rouennais » for the batting average (.268 against .261), the on-base percentage (.368 against .360), the earned run average (4.28 against 4.45), the strikeout rate per 9 innings (7.77 against 6.97). Advantage to the « Gellainvillois » for runs scored (208 against 192), strikeouts allowed (242 against 254), stolen bases (74 against 57), double plays turned (86 against 47). Near-equality for slugging (.350 / .352), batting average against (.263 / .266), WHIP (1.54 / 1.57), fielding percentage (.952 / .950).
The two qualifying days promise to be just as exciting on both sides…
Chartres field
6) The state of play
So, who’s going to win? It’s a tough call. Let’s be clear, no clear favorite emerges. And establishing a hierarchy is a matter of divination.
Here’s the baseball TV France rating:
★★★☆☆☆ La Rochelle.
After a thunderous start to the season, a small dry spell: what’s the real face of the Buccaneers? A solid pitching staff with the 2nd best ERA, even if Izquierdo’s absence last Sunday raises questions, but an attack that lacks depth (6th AVG, 6th SLG). The Buccaneers can legitimately aim for a spot in the semifinals, but going further is not guaranteed.
★★★★☆☆ Metz.
We feel like taking a gamble on the Messins, even if we don’t know much about them, since they’ve only played 6 games. But they have a fairly complete pitching staff, notably with the trio Priest – Paredes – Quiroz, and a top of the lineup led by Ruiz. Metz has never won a single match in the Challenge de France, but in a very open competition, why not have a Cinderella who shakes up the hierarchy?
★★☆☆☆☆ Montigny.
The reigning champion is in bad shape. Of course, the Cougars can dream of repeating last season’s feat, carried by the unstoppable duo Lopez – Marte in pitching, but the absence of Soliveres hurts a lineup that’s running out of steam (7th AVG, 8th SLG, 8th OBP), and the JFL pitchers are struggling to hold up. It’s going to be tough.
★★★☆☆☆ Montpellier
The Barracudas have added Ben Couvreur to their lineup, and his presence could change the game. But we remain skeptical, and Montpellier seems to be suffering from too many ailments, both in defense (worst fielding percentage) and in attack (only 52 runs scored) and pitching depth (outside the duo Ozanich – Canelon) to be considered a favorite.
★★★☆☆☆ Rouen
If the Huskies hadn’t gone to the last minute to get a new pitcher, the American Joshua Vincent (from the independent leagues, where he didn’t show much last year, with a 6.62 ERA under the colors of Winnipeg), we would have taken away a star, given how thin their bullpen is with the departures of Mercadier and Moulin. Of course, Prioul and Igama are at the top of their game, but that’s not enough to win a Challenge. Serenity is not on their side, as evidenced by the numerous changes in the lineups. That said, Rouen has the best batting average and the best ERA. So, it’s not time to bury the Huskies yet.
★★★★☆☆ Savigny
The Lions will probably go as far as the duo Jiminian – Acuna can carry them. And that could be very far, given how hot these two bats have been since the start of the season. They’re not alone, with a fairly balanced lineup, even if better production from Tissera will be necessary. Savigny has pitching solutions and looks like a serious contender for the title.
★★☆☆☆☆ Sénart
The Templiers seem to be doing a bit better, carried in particular by the performances of Bouniol and Hvrytishvili. But it’s still too light on the pitching, while the « Americans » haven’t yet returned. It seems difficult to see the young Templiers get past the first round.
★★★★☆☆ Toulouse
It’s hard to rule out the league leader, even if there are still uncertainties about Keivy Rojas’ health. Kenny Esposito is in the roster, and his presence gives a lot of depth to the pitching. The lineup is complete, the mindset is in good shape, the Stade has a real card to play.
