We break down this weekend’s matchups, these French championship semifinals that promise a lot.
Boucaniers – Lions
Catchers
It’s a heavyweight clash on both sides: Acuna and Lakhmeche are their teams’ top hitters. And both excel defensively too. Torres is also perfectly positioned to play the role of second (or first…). Advantage: La Rochelle
1st base
You’ll find the Lakhmeche/Torres duo, who alternate games. What will happen during the playoffs? Alternation also in Savigny with A. Amoros and Coste, though they’re slightly less powerful offensively. Advantage: La Rochelle.
2nd base
He started the season at shortstop, then moved to 2B. We expected better from the former Italian league player, but Gonzales has stabilized the defense, is a very good run producer, and a threat on the bases. M. Esteban (sometimes assisted by Milar) does solid work and can deliver in clutch moments. Advantage: Savigny
Shortstop
Though he seems slightly off compared to previous seasons, Ruiz is a very solid defender, capable of hitting with power, very effective with runners in scoring position. Crawford alternates between excellent (16 stolen bases, 15 walks) and mediocre (.293 average) and poor (4 RBI, 7 errors). Advantage: Savigny.
3rd base
Pierre-Emmanuel Planes has brought a lot since his return from the USA. He’s a defensive wall and his team’s best hitter. With good plate discipline and a solid average, Rosell is one of his team’s offensive leaders, a very important element. Even.
Left field
Alternation between Saxemard (a young player who keeps improving) / Rincon (off his game compared to teammates) / Dahan (solid defensively) for Savigny. Milar, a fairly powerful hitter, is most often the starter in La Rochelle, accompanied by Suazo. Advantage: La Rochelle.
Center field
Jacques Boucheron is off his usual stats, but he brings his calm and experience to the heart of the lineup. The Brazilian Felipe Lot is a disappointment, even if his 2 home runs prove he can be dangerous. Advantage: Savigny
Right field
You’ll find an alternation between Rincon/Dahan for the Lions. In La Rochelle, Da La Rosa (backed up by Suazo) is having a very solid season at the plate. Even.
Depth
Not many players capable of breaking into the lineup or replacing an injured or slumping starter on either side. Even.
Foreign starter #1
Paredes delivered what was expected of him, with a 1.53 ERA and a .185 BAA. We can only worry about his 13 walks and the fact that, apart from his first outing against Montigny (complete game), he seems to struggle to go the distance. La Rochelle owes a lot to Nieves, who raised his game against Sénart and Montpellier (2-1, 1.80 ERA, 37 K). He carries all the hopes of the Boucaniers. Advantage: La Rochelle.
French starter #1
We’ll give this title to Gédéon Coste for the Lions. We know the left-hander’s weak point, his lack of control which can cost him dearly. But he’s quite capable of holding his own for two turns of the lineup against opposing hitters. Nicolas Antoine earned his spot on the French team, but his 42 Ks are very solid, his ERA is much too high (4.58) and he struggles against the big teams. Advantage: Savigny
Bullpen
With Orozco, the Lions have acquired a rare weapon in French baseball, a reliable closer who knows his role. It’s a very precious asset in the playoffs. Fermin Hassed had a somewhat disappointing season, but he has real potential. If Lilian Amoros is able to return, he can be his team’s #1. Finally, don’t forget that Ivan Aucuna didn’t give up any runs in 6 innings of work. If the Lions have Orozco, the Boucaniers have De La Rosa, who is having his best season in relief. His BAA (.256) is high, but he has been effective in difficult situations. It’s a bit thin behind, unless C. Esteban can perform. Advantage: Savigny.
Coach
Thomas Salado knows this team inside out, which he has shaped and grown. He asserts himself year after year with experience and by making the right decisions. The Canadian Kirk McNabb has gotten the most out of his roster, his presence has really stabilized the club. Even.
The stat that’s scary
.337 slugging average, the Lions struggle to hit with power. 137 Ks (and 7 players with more than 10 Ks), the Boucaniers struggle to hit at all. Advantage: Savigny
The trend
Savigny is on a roll, with 10 consecutive wins in the league, and convincing victories coming from behind against Rouen and Montigny. You can feel a team in full confidence, very balanced, that knows what it wants and how to get it. La Rochelle has had a successful season with this first semifinal qualification and very solid performances throughout the year against the Templiers and the Barracudas. The Boucaniers have an advantage, that of having nothing to lose, and a disadvantage, 4 weeks without playing with the risk of being a bit rusty. Advantage: Savigny
Our predictions:
François: 3-1 for the Lions.
I think the Lions will win their two games this weekend, they are stronger, more experienced, more complete. La Rochelle will snatch game 3 with Nieves, but it will be too late.
Vincent: 3-2 for the Lions
La Rochelle will gain experience, not victories
Didier: 3-1 for the Lions
Savigny is on a roll and nothing can stop them this year
Barracudas – Huskies
Catchers
Javier Hernandez hasn’t brought all the defensive and offensive solidity we expected from a player of his caliber, while Gleeson remains one of the best French specialists, but will probably be called upon to play more often at 2B. Kovacs has really exploded this season, his team’s best hitter, and more than solid behind the plate. Advantage: Montpellier.
1st base
Blondel confirms his status as a dangerous hitter. He has gained power this season, without losing his average. He seems to have left behind his poor defensive start to the season. Anderson seems to be gaining momentum at the end of the season (2 big RBI against Sénart), but with 7 errors and an average that doesn’t exceed .333 and 14 Ks, he doesn’t bring enough. Advantage: Rouen
2nd base
Rouen hasn’t yet replaced Luc Piquet. It’s been a rotation at 2B between Gleeson, Harrison, Toubeaux, Viger, Guern. Gleeson should be the starter in the playoffs, we know his very great offensive qualities, his leadership and he is solid defensively. Some rotation also in Montpellier, even if Doat seems to be imposing himself at this position, despite his young age and lack of experience. Advantage: Rouen.
Shortstop
Complicated season for Maxime Lefevre, due to his professional life. But talent doesn’t evaporate in one season. He should be at his position to stabilize the defense and bring his offensive know-how. Gabriel Harrison is more than a solid substitute, with one of the best bats in Rouen and above-average athletic qualities. Guiraud has made his place with the Barracudas (even if Sigiura, who we’ll talk about again, can provide very great services). He is having a good offensive season. Even.
3rd base
He’s been there for so long that it’s hard to believe Brainville is only 20 years old. He has become a key player for his team, managing to master the difficulty of the hot corner and hitting with a lot of authority. Alex Soriano is a bit off offensively this season, but remains a constant threat. Advantage: Rouen
Left field
If we didn’t know Brainville is 20, we wonder if Bert is 35, such is his speed, his arm and his power still there. An experienced player is precious in the playoffs. Clément Le Pichon (but the position has been shared a lot throughout the season) is a solid D1 player, whom you always have to be wary of at the plate. Advantage: Rouen.
Center field
Off season for the 2021 final MVP. Vissac remains above the rest defensively but struggles at the plate. Brossier has returned in top form from his season in the United States and brings his speed and eye to the top of the Barracudas’ lineup. Sigiura does a very good job when called upon. Advantage: Montpellier.
Right field
7 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs, 30 RBI, .420 average, Bastien Dagneau is at his peak. Maël Zan is on his heels, he has really improved a lot over the past two seasons. A real heavyweight duel at this position. Advantage: Rouen
Depth
The Huskies have some backup solutions with the always solid Viger and Toubeaux, Guern or Harrison who are capable of taking any place in the lineup. Montpellier is just as well armed with Delogu, Antonac and Khoury, among others. Even.
Foreign starter #1
The young Gomez won the games he needed to in the Challenge and in the European Cup, but didn’t beat Savigny or Montigny in the league. He is capable of going the distance and his breaking ball is devastating. Walks (and wild pitches) remain a weak point. Even if Canelon remains an undeniable ace. His only bad outing: against Tenerife. And if he didn’t beat Sénart last Sunday, it’s because his defense let him down. Because 0 ER, 0 BB and 13 K, normally, you win. Advantage: Montpellier.
French starter #1
Prioul has taken a real dimension this year, confirming the promises seen in the past. He is very solid physically and mentally, dominant, even, in many occasions. Nayral achieved the game of his (young) career against Sénart, confirming the progress noted this season. He is still perfectible, but won’t make life easy for anyone. Advantage: Rouen.
Bullpen
Moulin has had ups and downs this season, but he has the potential to be among the best, and we know he is capable of bouncing back. Mercadier has shown he can hold his own as a starter, much less as a reliever. Moscato will provide services, remains the enigma Van Steensel, who may hold the destiny of the Huskies in his right arm. Ozanich is used in relief, no doubt due to shoulder problems. Over a few innings, he really does the job. Sigiura works very effectively in relief, Pontiac has shown interesting flashes. Even.
Coach
What a start to the career for Boris Marche, who has already added two trophies to the already full cabinet of the Huskies. He begins to shape the team in his image, managing with a lot of coolness, strong in his immense experience as a player. The eternal Jean-Michel Mayeur is looking for that championship title that has already been within his reach. Will he find the solution, the right change, the right strategy, that will finally make his team win? Even.
The stat that’s scary
The Huskies have hit into 11 double plays (including 4 for Hernandez alone). A rally-killer that can hurt in the series. Montpellier has committed 40 errors. That’s not reassuring for anyone, especially not for the Barracudas’ pitchers. Giving the opponent more outs is often decisive in the series. Advantage: Rouen
The trend
Finding yourself down 1-4 against the PUC after 6 innings, that’s not what you call reassuring with the playoffs. Granted, the Huskies won, but they don’t convince. They lack that killer instinct that was their trademark in the past, with seemingly too many concentration lapses during the games. But it’s playoff time, and a Huskies in the playoffs is like Hulk when he’s angry. It’s scary. The Barracudas were against the wall against Sénart. They didn’t buckle and delivered a high-level performance to qualify. It’s the sign of an extremely talented team, capable of transcending itself by the grace of the collective. Yet, there were these defeats in the Challenge against Savigny (but without Soriano) and in the European Cup against Rouen (but with their Anderson), which confirm the idea that Montpellier cracks under pressure. Where will the truth be?
Our predictions:
François: 3-2 for the Huskies
Because Rouen knows better than anyone how to manage do-or-die games, I think the Huskies will secure their qualification in the 5th game in Veyrassi, after splitting the first weekend at home. The prime to the past, to experience, to the record. But it won’t be easy for the Huskies.
Vincent: 3-2 for the Huskies
Again and again, Rouen will snatch victory from the Barracudas’ hopes
Didier: 3-2 for the Huskies
Rouen will tremble and scare themselves, but will pass
Article by François Colombier
