Baseball… crystal ball
It’s no easy task to predict the future. Sports competitions can take us to unexpected, even unimaginable perspectives… What about the third round of D1? One trend, however: the level is noticeably improving in some groups, and we’re tempted to think that underdogs are emerging. Recruitment is certainly part of it… Weekend analysis ahead. Photo credits Glenn Gervot.
24/04 PUC – Cougars
The Cougars, fifth in 2021, came out swinging against the French champions on the first day. They’ll be in Paris on April 24th against the PUC. If they could, every team would vote in their own favor… But competition isn’t democratic. Montigny hit .257 against the Huskies, securing their first win. Fagnoni, Jimenez, Tissera, and Do Carmo combined for a .400 average. This top quartet will likely give the Parisian side, ninth in 2021, a tough time. Against the Huskies, the Montigny mound allowed just six earned runs in sixteen innings. Add a solid defense with only two errors, and you can already say the Cougars will be a force to reckon with in Group A.
Above, Maestre Robinson, pitcher for the Cougars.
The PUC, meanwhile, faced Savigny last weekend, who dominated Paris 12-5 and 13-2. First round, and proof that Douglas Rodriguez’s men will have to work hard to reverse their tendency to occupy the bottom of the standings for a few years now. What about the Parisian pitching staff, their defense? In sixteen innings, the PUC allowed 13 earned runs with 12 errors… Too bad for Rabearivelo (0 ER), Yasuda, Soliez, and Laot, who had only allowed six earned runs in thirteen innings combined. But last weekend, the Lions went wild on Briggi, scoring seven runs in 1 1/3 innings and eight at-bats! At the plate, the Parisians were too tight, batting .175 with 18 strikeouts for just three walks… Only one extra-base hit from Sulinsky (a double) against Hassed, Orozco, and Coste. The psychological and technical edge is therefore with the Cougars, facing a PUC that’s potentially powerful but lacks depth for now.
Above, Savigny Lions on offense.
24/04 Huskies – Lions.
Season-opening clash, scheduled in Rouen. As we’ve seen, the Norman ogre lost once at home to Montigny. Boris Marche’s men, sixteen-time French champions, have, right or wrong, almost blind faith in their destiny. And very often, they start their campaign slowly. So, a classic start for Rouen: calm but with strong momentum for the rest. Despite a loss, the pack batted a solid .286. Dagneau Harrison and Gleeson combined for a stunning .440 average. Nine more hits for the rest of the Rouen offense, very productive in this first meeting, but they also struck out 16 times for just five walks. Four extra-base hits, including a triple from the strong Brainville. Defensively, the Huskies are still warming up with four errors. The mound: led by a sparkling Prioul, who secured his first win and a 0.00 ERA. Carvalo, Moulin, and Becquey allowed just one earned run. Only Magnien struggled in 1/3 of an inning, with five hits and three earned runs.
Watch out for the Lions, who score runs and steal bases: 8/9 (Huskies 4/4). After easily dominating the PUC (warm-up if you want to be harsh), Savigny-sur-Orge takes on the biggest game of the season. Certainly a preview of the playoffs, Norman-style. The potential on both sides is enormous. In terms of surprise, power, opportunism. The Huskies will defend their turf with pride for a possible 3W-1L. If the Lions, underdogs against the defending champions, escape the Huskies, it’s a potential 4W-0L within reach. Nothing is less certain. We’re leaning more towards a split that, while not helping Rouen, would confirm the Lions’ ambitions, who are well on their way and absolutely don’t want to let two games slip away.
Above, duel between La Rochelle Boucaniers and Toulouse Tigers.
24/04 Toulouse Tigers – Boucaniers
The two teams only crossed paths in 2021 in the playdowns. Three wins for the Rochellians (10-3, 8-1, 9-0 forfeit). Strong from their good start (3W-1L), the Boucaniers are on the attack (homogeneous lineup) and solid in defense. Young international Antoine, more consistent than last year, already has a win. Nieves, former Mets prospect, dazzling with 12 strikeouts, no walks, one earned run in 12 1/3 innings, and a win. De La Rosa isn’t messing around, the international produces 11 strikeouts, 3 walks, and no earned runs in 5 2/3 innings with a win. Five defensive errors in four games is average… With the bat in hand, the Rochellians are openly dangerous. They’re batting .313 against the Barracudas and Cavigals. Granted, the Nice mound isn’t Montpellier’s (outside of Teramura), but the maritime side still took a game from the Veyrassi tenants. Lakmeche currently has the best average in four games played (.529). The top three in the lineup combine for .434 and .500 with a SLG. 15 extra-base hits, including a home run from LOT. Crowford (SS), the historical backbone of the Boucaniers in D1, is batting .500, has a perfect 6/6 in stolen bases, and hasn’t made any errors yet.
The Toulouse stadium, already with two setbacks, will have to bring their A-game. Leading the charge: Esposito (.400 AVG), Garcia E. (.333 AVG), Soliveres ex-Barracudas, and a mound that issues as many walks as strikeouts (14). Garcia John Will is worth watching with a nice 3.38 ERA in 5 1/3 innings and 2 earned runs. Behind the mound, it’s serious with only 2 defensive errors. Watch out, they’re running well around the bases with a solid 5/5 in stolen bases. The Tigers faced one of the league’s giants, the Templiers. We all know the intrinsic value of the Sénart mound with Priest, not to mention the offensive lineup. That’s probably why the Toulouse attack’s average is quite poor at the moment. But watch out for the start of Toulouse’s lineup, they know they’re the epicenter around which potential group victories revolve. It would be dangerous for the Occitans to start the season with four losses. The Boucaniers are strong but are traveling and are statistically below the Templiers. Let’s bet on a split in Toulouse, but the fight should be tight.
Above, Canelon, Montpellier Barracudas.
24/4 Nice – Montpellier
It will be tough for Montpellier to be as impactful as they were in 2021. But imagine it’s possible. The ranks will fill up as the championship progresses. When you have Ozanich on the mound and Canelon (or vice versa), it’s hard to start panicking. Against the Boucaniers, Kovacs, Guiraud, and Soriano are hitting a heavy .555 average, with a .777 SLG. You can’t steal much in Montpellier. Montas (C Nice) won’t be able to do much against this sector of the attack where he excels. The Montpelliérains batted .320 in two games. Defensively, eight errors disrupted Montpellier’s plans. That’s too many. Fortunately, the colossus Canelon (4K, 1BB, 6 IP) and Ozanish (10K, 0BB, 6 IP) are keeping watch with just one earned run between them (Canelon). Young prospect Nayral held his own. Only Soriano in relief and Brouillet took some hits. Nice, as we’ve seen, already has their feet in the water. Things will happen. The Barracudas will be shaken up periodically, maybe even worried. But the balance tips radically in Montpellier’s favor for the two games.
Above, Barracudas vs. Templiers duel.
Vincent Picard
